New Forex Trading Strategy

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explained

By Ahmad Hassam

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most reliable and useful tool in the arsenal of a currency trader. MACD is a trend following momentum indicator or oscillator.

MACD shows the relationship between two moving averages of recent prices. It is a lagging indicator. Most technical indicators are lagging which means they are slow. They just tell you what just happened after the fact.

Technical analysis is based on the belief that past prices can be used to predict the future prices in the currency markets. Learning technical analysis is essential for you as a currency trader.

There are many chart types and technical indicators used in the technical analysis. Technical analysis helps you to read your charts. This is the key to understanding the market behavior.

MACD is calculated by subtracting a slow exponential moving average (EMA) from a fast EMA. Signal line is calculated by the taking the EMA of MACD. The Histogram is the difference between the MACD and its signal line.

MACD is one of the most popular technical indicators in currency trading and is used often. However, beware that MACD is often misunderstood and misused resulting in wrong signals. Like any other technical indicator you should use it in conjunction with other technical indicators for confirmation.

In case of Crossovers, when MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal. It indicates the time to sell. Conversely, when MACD rises above the signal line, it is a bullish signal. It indicates that it may be time to buy.

Divergence: When the price diverges from MACD, it indicates the end of the current trend. Negative Divergence is when the price action is rising and MACD is falling. Both the price action line and the MACD line are diverging. It is an indication of the change in the currency trend. Thats right! The lagging indicator that is supposed to follow the price is predicting future behavior of the prices in the market.

Dramatic Expansion: Dramatic expansion occurs when the shorter moving exponential average pulls away from the longer moving exponential average. Suppose MACD expands dramatically. It is an indication that the currency is overbought/ oversold and may return to normal soon.

You should make one thing very clear when you use a MACD. All the above three cases are important. They should not be overlooked by you as a currency trader. However, none of them alone are signals for entering or exiting a trade. MACD Divergence is tradable when confirmed by other indicators. If you simply start trading on MACD Divergence, it may not yield a profitable trade.

However, when you confirm MACD with other technical indicators, success is more likely. This is because of the fact that several things are happening in the currency markets at the same time. So you have to confirm your finding with other technical indicators. Each is attracting the same bulls and bears into the trade that you are planning to make.

When you use MACD, crossovers and dramatic rises are usually easy to spot. Even novices can do that. However, spotting MACD divergence correctly comes after a little practice. - 23305

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