Currency Volatility and Macro Traders
If you are a global macro trader you trade anything and everything as long as you can find an exploitable edge. The majority of your trades are across asset classes trading stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. You are looking for uncorrelated returns from multiple asset classes.
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
To make money in the carry trade you go long a high yielding currency and go short a low yielding currency. By doing this you are able to earn the interest rate differential which is simply the difference between the two currencies interest rates. You can also of course earn money by being right on the trade and the direction.
To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?
No, it is not. Yes, you can get the carry but if there is excess or even normal volatility depending upon the leverage being used you will blow up in traders terms. If this is the case, and it is, then what should a trade be focusing on when they are trying to execute the carry trade? Well the obvious answer is volatility.
There are a gazillion ways to measure volatility but some of the best ones are by using an actual volatility index. We have the VIX on the SP500 which is a surprisingly good measure of financial volatility and is suitable for currencies as well. But these days we have some volatility indexes from many of the investment banks which make it far easier to measure currency volatility and back test ideas.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23305
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
One of the best places for macro traders to really differentiate themselves from other categories is in the currency carry trade. While most people understand what a directional bet is, one in which you buy or short something and if it goes up or down you make money, many do not understand carry.
To make money in the carry trade you go long a high yielding currency and go short a low yielding currency. By doing this you are able to earn the interest rate differential which is simply the difference between the two currencies interest rates. You can also of course earn money by being right on the trade and the direction.
To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?
No, it is not. Yes, you can get the carry but if there is excess or even normal volatility depending upon the leverage being used you will blow up in traders terms. If this is the case, and it is, then what should a trade be focusing on when they are trying to execute the carry trade? Well the obvious answer is volatility.
There are a gazillion ways to measure volatility but some of the best ones are by using an actual volatility index. We have the VIX on the SP500 which is a surprisingly good measure of financial volatility and is suitable for currencies as well. But these days we have some volatility indexes from many of the investment banks which make it far easier to measure currency volatility and back test ideas.
If you are an active macro trader that is using the carry trade then you should incorporate a volatility filter. If you are not using the carry trade then you are missing out on a great way to diversify as well as deliver more consistent returns. - 23305
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly macro currency trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by Mr. Forex at
2:39 AM
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