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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Wall Street Notices Wealth Redistribution And The White House

By Jackie Epstein

There is this story about small town in Honduras nestled on the coast of the Caribbean. With about one visitor a month, the economy wasn't boding well for the town and all its citizens, it seems, were living on credit and in debt.

Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a $100 bill on the reception counter, and asks for a meal and later goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. The hotel proprietor takes the hundred dollar bill and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.

With a fresh hundred dollar bill in hand, the butcher supply owner hastily pays his debt to the rancher who in turn scrambles to pay $100 for feed costs. The feed and grain guy seeing this fresh money makes his way to the fuel supplier for his machinery and uses the 100 bucks to pay part of his fuel bill.

Compelled to make good on past debts, the fuel dealer takes the $100 bill and pays his debt to his personal prostitute. Because of hard times she gave out her services on credit and she now pays her debt to the hotel for past rooms rented for her clients.

Now that the $100 has returned to the hotel owner he lays the $100 bill back down on the counter. The stranger now filled with a delicious meal pays for it with pocket change and decides not to rent a room and takes the $100 back and leaves town.

As the story unfolds, so far, no one earned anything. However, the whole town is now with less debt, and looks to the future with a little more optimism. That is similar to how the United States Government is doing business today shifting liabilities from one balance sheet to another.

Now the wealthy tourist was impressed by his meal and had nice things to say about the town and it became a news story. Soon after, 8 new tourists make their way to the town hotel. The owner overcome by the bonanza of new customers wants to raise his room charges and menu prices. The butcher, rancher and feed and fuel suppliers are in the throes of raising their prices. And the prostitute needed to raise her prices in order to cover the increased room rates.

What has happened is that liabilities transferred from one balance sheet to another. As everyone knows, paying debts keeps money in circulation as long as the debts remain in place. Once they are paid off, new borrowers for loans need to be found. But when "green shoot" optimism begins to reign, everyone wants to raise prices. And the race begins unless monetary policy tightens money supply. If you chose to fly ahead of impending news, get your Wall Street Journal subscription today. - 23305

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