Money Management in Trading Systems
How to manage money when buying stocks, futures, or options -- what you must know before you buy.
Many people have a very crucial problem, they take on more risk than they can. It really doesn't matter if you're very young, if you take risk to the extreme and continue down that path, you will by mathematical law in all probability lose money.
Lets say you had an almost sure investment that was 85% likely to succeed. When it succeeded you double your money. You put all your money on it. The problem is, when the investment fails, you lose everything. Now it is just a fact that you will eventually lose everything if you continue to invest everything. You only need one trade and you are wiped out completely. Now, even if you invested 90% of your money on an investment that would win 80% of the time, you still are taking on too much risk to win in the long run. If you lose once, you will need a 1000% return just to get back to even. That simply will not happen forever, and even if it did, the large loss would limit your potential for gain so much, that you'd be better off not taking on the maximum risk.
Now, your risk of losing everything can never be completely 100% eliminated, even with conservative strategies. If you flip enough coins, eventually you'll get a very rare event such as 100 heads in a row. However, you'll also get 100 tails in a row. The idea is that you have a strategy that yields you more when you win, and/or wins more than it loses. in this case there will be several losses in a row, but there will also be several wins in a row. If you manage your money properly, you will still have enough money if you get several losses in a row, to be able to more than make up for it when you get several wins in a row. If you are forced to limit the amount of capital after so many losses, that you cannot invest with the same amount after the losses, you may be unable to win enough to make up for those losses. The idea is to keep your investments small enough to limit the chances of that happening. Although almost nothing is a sure thing, by using proper money management, you tip the odds in your favor.
Even if you have a profitable method, if you do not manage your risk, your profitable method becomes unprofitable. It's not usually the investment vehicle, it's the investor that ultimately determines how quickly you fail, and ultimately whether you are able to succeed. Under the same context, it's not usually the type of car, but the driver that determines whether you cause an accident. In order to protect yourself, you must keep your positions at a manageable level, and make sure to keep yourself limited by these rules that will limit your risk of ruin and keep the odds in your favor so you can stay in the game.
So how exactly does one manage money in a trading system? You need to determine probability of a move taking place. If you buy OTM option, the stock will have to move larger for success to occur. Of course if it does, the reward will be greater. There are probability curves based on a random walk theory that will assist you in determining the probability of a move taking place, until you know any better, use these. However, you also should use your own records of your system Determine both your risk/reward (your average % win divided by your average percentage losses, and in addition figure out your likelihood of success. When you do this, you can use what's known as the Kelly Criterion By using the formula as follows Kelly % = W - [(1 - W) / R] Kelly % = The maximum percentage of your capital you should invest per position. W = Winning probability R = Win/loss ratio
A trading system that contains good money management rules will not only outperform one without, but it will also help protect your capital, and keep you in the game. - 23305
Many people have a very crucial problem, they take on more risk than they can. It really doesn't matter if you're very young, if you take risk to the extreme and continue down that path, you will by mathematical law in all probability lose money.
Lets say you had an almost sure investment that was 85% likely to succeed. When it succeeded you double your money. You put all your money on it. The problem is, when the investment fails, you lose everything. Now it is just a fact that you will eventually lose everything if you continue to invest everything. You only need one trade and you are wiped out completely. Now, even if you invested 90% of your money on an investment that would win 80% of the time, you still are taking on too much risk to win in the long run. If you lose once, you will need a 1000% return just to get back to even. That simply will not happen forever, and even if it did, the large loss would limit your potential for gain so much, that you'd be better off not taking on the maximum risk.
Now, your risk of losing everything can never be completely 100% eliminated, even with conservative strategies. If you flip enough coins, eventually you'll get a very rare event such as 100 heads in a row. However, you'll also get 100 tails in a row. The idea is that you have a strategy that yields you more when you win, and/or wins more than it loses. in this case there will be several losses in a row, but there will also be several wins in a row. If you manage your money properly, you will still have enough money if you get several losses in a row, to be able to more than make up for it when you get several wins in a row. If you are forced to limit the amount of capital after so many losses, that you cannot invest with the same amount after the losses, you may be unable to win enough to make up for those losses. The idea is to keep your investments small enough to limit the chances of that happening. Although almost nothing is a sure thing, by using proper money management, you tip the odds in your favor.
Even if you have a profitable method, if you do not manage your risk, your profitable method becomes unprofitable. It's not usually the investment vehicle, it's the investor that ultimately determines how quickly you fail, and ultimately whether you are able to succeed. Under the same context, it's not usually the type of car, but the driver that determines whether you cause an accident. In order to protect yourself, you must keep your positions at a manageable level, and make sure to keep yourself limited by these rules that will limit your risk of ruin and keep the odds in your favor so you can stay in the game.
So how exactly does one manage money in a trading system? You need to determine probability of a move taking place. If you buy OTM option, the stock will have to move larger for success to occur. Of course if it does, the reward will be greater. There are probability curves based on a random walk theory that will assist you in determining the probability of a move taking place, until you know any better, use these. However, you also should use your own records of your system Determine both your risk/reward (your average % win divided by your average percentage losses, and in addition figure out your likelihood of success. When you do this, you can use what's known as the Kelly Criterion By using the formula as follows Kelly % = W - [(1 - W) / R] Kelly % = The maximum percentage of your capital you should invest per position. W = Winning probability R = Win/loss ratio
A trading system that contains good money management rules will not only outperform one without, but it will also help protect your capital, and keep you in the game. - 23305
About the Author:
Maclin Vestor teaches about varioustrading systems and teaches you to find a trading system that works for you.
posted by Mr. Forex at
6:58 AM
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