Choosing A Forex Signal Provider - A Look At Win Percentage
Are the better traders closer to 100% winning trades, or is that just the way it seems? In contrast, the closer the traders are to 0%; it would seem that they are worse. There is more to trading than winning the most possible trades, even though that seems peculiar. This article will hopefully help fill you in on why I would argue that a 95% win rate is infinitely worse than a 65% win rate.
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
The next range is from ~40% to ~70%. This is the range most winning traders will be in. The reason these traders win is not because they pick a ton of winning trades and rarely have a loser. They may in fact have more losing trades than winning trades. The reason they are able to win is that they properly manage their trades once they are open. They use reasonable stops that will often be executed. This obviously results in a losing trade, but a small loser. These small losers are only a fraction of the size of their winning trades. These are most often the traders that have the ability to cut their losses but let their winners run. This seems like a simple concept, but very few traders have the discipline to actually do it.
The last group are those with a very high win % (over 70%). It seems the closer to 100% these traders get, the more people want to trade their signals. Unfortunately the opposite is probably the correct play. These traders win an incredibly high amount of the time because they often take profit off of the table as soon as it appears. This strategy is fine if you also plan to cut losses in that manner. But traders with 95% win rates and above do not have this strategy in mind. Rather than accepting a small loss and moving on with their day, they will let a loser run indefinitely and even add to that position in many cases. This eventually wipes out months or more of winning trades all at once and in the end has no chance of success. One 500 pip loser wipes out 500 one pip winners. Keep in mind that this trader would have well over 99% winning trades and still be an over all loser.
Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I'm quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute. - 23305
Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.
The next range is from ~40% to ~70%. This is the range most winning traders will be in. The reason these traders win is not because they pick a ton of winning trades and rarely have a loser. They may in fact have more losing trades than winning trades. The reason they are able to win is that they properly manage their trades once they are open. They use reasonable stops that will often be executed. This obviously results in a losing trade, but a small loser. These small losers are only a fraction of the size of their winning trades. These are most often the traders that have the ability to cut their losses but let their winners run. This seems like a simple concept, but very few traders have the discipline to actually do it.
The last group are those with a very high win % (over 70%). It seems the closer to 100% these traders get, the more people want to trade their signals. Unfortunately the opposite is probably the correct play. These traders win an incredibly high amount of the time because they often take profit off of the table as soon as it appears. This strategy is fine if you also plan to cut losses in that manner. But traders with 95% win rates and above do not have this strategy in mind. Rather than accepting a small loss and moving on with their day, they will let a loser run indefinitely and even add to that position in many cases. This eventually wipes out months or more of winning trades all at once and in the end has no chance of success. One 500 pip loser wipes out 500 one pip winners. Keep in mind that this trader would have well over 99% winning trades and still be an over all loser.
Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I'm quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute. - 23305
About the Author:
To learn more about Automated Forex Trading Systems or to choose a signal provider at Zulutrade visit http://www.automatedforextradingsystems.com .
posted by Mr. Forex at
7:51 AM
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