New Forex Trading Strategy

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

How To Win At The Stock Market

By Sean Phelps

Most amateurs get killed in the stock market when double bottoms and double tops form. I am going to show you how to beat the professional traders at their own game.

Every bull run in the stock market hits a level where longs start taking profits because the stock has run up too far too fast. When longs take profits, charts top out when the money from new longs is not enough to replace what was taken out.

Traders who just bought the stock are pissed off because they came to late. They are trapped, sometimes even in a Bearish Island Reversal. Should they just stay in the stock and hope it comes back or sell for a loss? Well, the stock will keep dropping until enough bulls decide that the stock has over extended itself on the downside. So as more and more of these bulls step in, the stock begins to rise and the rally continues. Now when the stock finally rises back up to its previous high, you can expect sell orders to hit the market as those who were trapped exit their positions.

There are always those traders who were trapped in the previous reversal and now they have sworn to their gods to jump out if the market would just give them another chance by rising to its old high.

At a market bottom, bears start covering their short positions when a new low is formed. Once the rally from short covering ends and the stock continues to fall, the question becomes will the previous low hold. If bears (fear) are stronger than bulls (greed), prices will fall below the previous low and the downward move will keep on going. If bears are weaker than bulls, the downward move will stop near the previous low and create a double bottom bounce. Use your other favorite indicators to decide which of these events is more likely to happen.

Any time you see a stock rise to its previous peak, the main question in your mind should be will it rise to a new high or form a double top and turn down. Technical indicators like volume, MACD, RSI, and stochastics can be a great help in answering this question.

If a stock climbs to its previous high, if the volume, MACD, and stochastics are dropping then a double top is likely to form.

Whenever a stock falls to its previous low, it is likely a double bottom will form if the volume and MACD start climbing. - 23305

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The Best Investment Ideas Are The Simplest So Here's What To Look For.

By Monty Burn

Do you realise the best investment ideas can usually be the simplest? One of the secrets though is knowing where to go for the lowest risk but with the best return.

Forget the current downturn for a moment as property prices do increase nicely over the years. You can still make a decent low risk investment out of property.

Location, location, location! It's as relevant now as it's always been. If you are looking at a property investment then location is number one on your list.

In the UK house prices double about every ten years. In view of this property investments can still be quite lucrative. Great investment ideas are usually the simplest and property is one of the simplest, and best.

Keeping figures simple and rounded well do a quick example. Invest in a house for 150k and keep it for ten years. It should be now worth circa 300k.

If (in the above example) buying on a mortgage you should shop around for the best deals as even a little saving on your mortgage rate could mean a big cash saving. Always try to have access to some cash as you never know when another great investment idea comes along.

Chopping and changing lenders can be a hassle, but the ultimate return on your investment can be much more if you do a little work. The mortgage is a key factor in any property investment idea.

A lot of fledgling investors get caught out by the rises and falls of the property market. They usually buy at a peak then when things turn sour, they rush to get rid. This is a guaranteed way to lose money and confidence.

Going back to the phrase, simple is usually best, you need a system to work from to maximise any chance of great returns. If you are thinking of property investment then the simplest way is to wait for a trough, get in the game with the best location you can afford and if renting, get a good team to manage the rentals.

For centuries it has been proven that the best ideas are the simplest with the wheel being a prime example. Don't over complicate matters in your search for a good investment idea, after all simple is best. Click the following link for great investment ideas. - 23305

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Commodities and the Global Macro Trader

By George Kovner

The typical image of the floor of the Mercantile Exchange being filled with a bunch of guys that couldn't get jobs anywhere else is very outdated and wrong. Instead commodity traders are increasingly becoming some of the most sophisticated investors on earth.

One of the main types of upstairs traders in the commodity markets are the CTA or commodity trading advisors. They typically do a lot of long term trend following. The second major commodity trader is the global macro trader.

Global macro traders are the next major group of players in the commodity markets. Some are heavily involved and some barely trade them but all macro traders track the commodity markets to give them a better look into the worlds macro economic situation.

For instance if oil is rising like we saw in 2008 then you have to look to see what businesses are going to get hurt and what will benefit from higher oil prices. Obviously oil companies will make more money but what about shorting airlines? Or maybe even going long railroad companies. As you can tell there are endless ideas of who is affected and who is not.

Precious metals are another area of great concern. Long looked as a fantastic inflation gauge gold and silver are also looked upon more and more as alternative currencies since most fiat currencies are looking like junk these days. As you can see precious metals are very useful to key in on currencies and inflation.

Another huge piece of the economic pie is that of industrial commodities. Industrial commodities comprising aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, iron, copper, etc are used in everything for everything. If you drive it, plug it into the wall, or live in it then you have industrial metals all around you. And you only need to have accounts with access to three exchanged to trade 95% of all this.

While many investors gloss over the agricultural commodities they shouldn't. In the future agricultural commodities will only be increasing in importance as the worlds water supplies continue to diminish. If you are already monitoring demographic trends and overall supply demand you should also be following agricultural commodities.

As you can see commodities can be a very useful and profitable asset class. With several sub sectors as well as the fact that most commodities are so universal that they only trade in one currency and it should be obvious that you need to track if not trade commodities. - 23305

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Rollovers in Currency Markets

By Ahmad Hassam

Rollovers are unique to the currency markets. Rollovers are transactions where an open position from one settlement date is rolled over to the next settlement date. Rollovers represent the intersection of interest rate markets and forex markets.

Rollover rates depend on the difference between the interest rates of the two currencies in the pair that you are trading. Only remember that what you are trading is in fact the good old cash. Dont forget currency is money after all.

It is like having a deposit in a bank account when you are long on a currency. Its like take a loan from the bank if you are short. You should expect an interest gain or an interest expense on holding a currency position over time just as you would expect to earn interest on a bank deposit and pay interest on a loan.

Interest rate differential is the difference between the interest rates between the two currencies. You should think of the open currency position as one currency with the positive balance (the currency you are long) and one with negative balance (the currency you are short).

The interest rates of two different countries apply because your accounts are in two different currencies. You should look for the base or benchmark lending rates in each country. You can find the interest rates of different countries from Wall Street Journal Online, Financial Times online or that matter any good financial website.

If you hold an open position past the settlement date or value date, rollovers are usually carried out by your forex broker. The smaller the impact of the rollovers, the narrower the interest rate differential! The larger the impact from rollovers, the larger the interest rate differential!

Some online forex brokers apply the rollover rates by adjusting the average rate of your open position. Other forex brokers apply the rollover rates by applying the rollover credit or debit directly to your margin balance. Rollovers are applied to your open currency position by two offsetting trades that result in the same open position.

Day traders dont have to worry about rollovers. Rollovers do not apply for day traders who usually close their positions at the end of each trading day. Rollovers are not applied if you dont carry a position over the change in the value date. Rollovers only apply to your over night open position carried over to the next day. Rollovers are applied to open position after 5.00 PM EST change in value date.

Rollovers can earn you interest income if you are long the currency with the higher interest rate and short the currency with the lower interest rate. Rollovers will cost you money if you are short the currency with the higher interest rate and long the currency with the low interest rates. - 23305

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Forex Trading, What The Hype Is All About

By Jo Nash

Forex trading is all about making big money. Some investors have found it quite easy to make a large amount of money as the forex market changes daily. Forex, is the foreign exchange market. Online and offline you will find references to the forex market as FX as well. Forex trading takes place through a broker or a financial institution often where you are able to purchase other types of stocks, bonds and investments.

When you are thinking about getting involved in the forex markets you should know you are sending money to be invested with other countries. This is done to prop up the investments of people involved in certain types of hedge funds, and in the markets overseas. The forex market could have your money invested in one market one day, and the next day your money is invested in another country. The daily changes are determined by your broker or financial institution. When reading your statements and learning more about your account, you will find that every type of currency has three letters that will represent that currency.

For example, the United States dollars is USD, the Japanese yen is JPY, and the British pound sterling will read as GBP. You will also find that for every transaction on your account listing you will see information that looks like this: JPYzzz/GBPzzz. This means that you took your Japanese yen money and invested it into something in the British pound market. You will find many transactions from one currency to another if you have money that is scattered through out the forex markets.

Forex markets trading by investment management firms are the companies you can trust with your money. You want to find a company that has been dealing with forex trading since the early seventies, and not someone just new on the block so you get the most for your hard earned money. It is important that you beware of companies that are popping up online, and often times from foreign countries that are stating they can get you involved in the forex markets and trading. Read the fine print, and know whom you are dealing with for the best possible protection.

If you are interested in trading on the forex market, you will find limits for investing are different from company to company. Often times you will learn that you need a minimum of $250 or $500 while other companies will need $1000 or $10,000. The company you are dealing with will set limits in how much you need to open an account with their company. The scams that are online will tell you, that you only need a $1 or $5 to open an account, but you need to learn more about that company and where they are doing business before investing any money, this is for your own protection while dealing in forex trading and markets online. - 23305

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